Fil:Global warming hiatus.gif

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Global_warming_hiatus.gif(509 × 370 billedpunkter, filstørrelse: 500 KB, MIME-type: image/gif, gentaget, 42 rammer, 18 s)


Denne fil er fra Wikimedia Commons

Beskrivelse

Beskrivelse
English: By selecting or cherry-picking data, the trend of global warming appears to mistakenly stop, as in the period from 1998 to 2012, which is actually a random contrary fluctuation.
Dato
Kilde Eget arbejde
Forfatter Physikinger
Andre versioner German version File:Vermeindlicher Stillstand der globalen Erwaermung.gif
GIF udvikling
InfoField
 
GIF Rastergrafik blev lavet med Matplotlib.
Kildekode
InfoField

Python code

# This source code is public domain

import numpy
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import imageio

year_T = {
    # https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
    # GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius   base period: 1951-1980
    # sources:  GHCN-v4 1880-07/2021 + SST: ERSST v5 1880-07/2021
    # using elimination of outliers and homogeneity adjustment
    # Divide by 100 to get changes in degrees Celsius (deg-C).
    # Year  J-D (annual mean Temperature Jan to Dec)
    1880: -16, 1881:  -8, 1882: -11, 1883: -17, 1884: -28,
    1885: -33, 1886: -31, 1887: -36, 1888: -17, 1889: -10,
    1890: -35, 1891: -22, 1892: -27, 1893: -31, 1894: -30,
    1895: -22, 1896: -11, 1897: -11, 1898: -27, 1899: -17,
    1900:  -8, 1901: -15, 1902: -28, 1903: -37, 1904: -47,
    1905: -26, 1906: -22, 1907: -38, 1908: -43, 1909: -48,
    1910: -43, 1911: -44, 1912: -36, 1913: -34, 1914: -15,
    1915: -14, 1916: -36, 1917: -46, 1918: -30, 1919: -28,
    1920: -27, 1921: -19, 1922: -29, 1923: -27, 1924: -27,
    1925: -22, 1926: -11, 1927: -22, 1928: -20, 1929: -36,
    1930: -16, 1931:  -9, 1932: -16, 1933: -29, 1934: -13,
    1935: -20, 1936: -15, 1937:  -3, 1938:   0, 1939:  -2,
    1940:  13, 1941:  19, 1942:   7, 1943:   9, 1944:  20,
    1945:   9, 1946:  -7, 1947:  -3, 1948: -11, 1949: -11,
    1950: -17, 1951:  -7, 1952:   1, 1953:   8, 1954: -13,
    1955: -14, 1956: -19, 1957:   5, 1958:   6, 1959:   3,
    1960:  -3, 1961:   6, 1962:   3, 1963:   5, 1964: -20,
    1965: -11, 1966:  -6, 1967:  -2, 1968:  -8, 1969:   5,
    1970:   3, 1971:  -8, 1972:   1, 1973:  16, 1974:  -7,
    1975:  -1, 1976: -10, 1977:  18, 1978:   7, 1979:  16,
    1980:  26, 1981:  32, 1982:  14, 1983:  31, 1984:  16,
    1985:  12, 1986:  18, 1987:  32, 1988:  39, 1989:  27,
    1990:  45, 1991:  40, 1992:  22, 1993:  23, 1994:  31,
    1995:  45, 1996:  33, 1997:  46, 1998:  61, 1999:  38,
    2000:  39, 2001:  53, 2002:  63, 2003:  62, 2004:  53,
    2005:  67, 2006:  63, 2007:  66, 2008:  54, 2009:  65,
    2010:  72, 2011:  61, 2012:  65, 2013:  67, 2014:  74,
    2015:  90, 2016: 101, 2017:  92, 2018:  85, 2019:  97,
    2020: 102, 2021:  85, 2022:  89,     
    }
    
x, y = (numpy.array(list(x()), dtype='d') for x in (year_T.keys, year_T.values))
y = y / 100

xMinFocus, xMaxFocus = 1998, 2012
i0 = x.tolist().index(xMinFocus)
i1 = x.tolist().index(xMaxFocus) + 1

nPoly = 4
phi = numpy.array([x**i for i in range(nPoly)])
A = phi @ phi.T
b = phi @ y
c = numpy.linalg.solve(A, b)
yPoly = c @ phi

phiHist = phi[:,:i1]
A = phiHist @ phiHist.T
b = phiHist @ y[:i1]
c = numpy.linalg.solve(A, b)
yPolyHist = c @ phi

nPoly = 3
phiF = phi[:nPoly,i0:i1]
A = phiF @ phiF.T
b = phiF @ y[i0:i1]
c = numpy.linalg.solve(A, b)
yPolyFocus = c @ phi[:nPoly]
yMinTotal, yMaxTotal = numpy.min(y) - 0.02, numpy.max(y) + 0.02
xMinTotal, xMaxTotal = numpy.min(x), numpy.max(x)
yMinFocus, yMaxFocus = numpy.min(y[i0:i1]) - 0.02, numpy.max(y[i0:i1]) + 0.02
plt.xlim(xMinFocus-0.1, xMaxFocus+0.1)

# Frame-Parameter:
#   t: Frame duration
#   trans1: transition 0 to 1 towards full time frame
#   trans2: transition 0 to 1 towards full data set
#   showTrend: Trend (0: None, 1: Zoom, 2: full history, 3: full time frame)

parameters = [ # (t, trans1, trans2, showTrend)
    (1, 0.0, 0.0, 0),
    (4, 0.0, 0.0, 1),
    *[(0.1, t**2, 0.0, 1) for t in numpy.linspace(0,1,25)],
    (1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1),
    (0.5, 1.0, 0.0, 0),
    (1, 1.0, 0.0, 2),
    *[(0.1, 1.0, t,2) for t in numpy.linspace(0,1,10)],
    (0.5, 1.0, 1.0, 2),
    (6, 1.0, 1.0, 3),
    ]

images = []
duration = []
for t, trans1, trans2, showTrend in parameters:
    duration.append(t)
    zoom = 4*(1-trans1) + 1*trans1
    fig = plt.figure(figsize=(5.1,3.7), dpi=100)
    plt.rc('axes', titlesize=14, labelsize=12)
    plt.rc('xtick', labelsize=11)
    plt.rc('ytick', labelsize=11)
    plt.rc('legend', fontsize=16)
    if showTrend == 1: plt.plot(x[i0-15:], yPolyFocus[i0-15:], 'r--', label='Trend')
    if showTrend == 2: plt.plot(x, yPolyHist, 'b--', label='Trend')
    if showTrend == 3: plt.plot(x, yPoly, 'b--', label='Trend')
    iMax = int(i1 + trans2*(len(x)-i1))
    plt.plot(x[:iMax], y[:iMax], 'C0.-', alpha=0.8, linewidth=0.8*zoom, markersize=6*zoom)
    plt.plot(x[i0:i1], y[i0:i1], 'C3.-', linewidth=0.805*zoom, markersize=6.05*zoom)
    plt.grid(True, alpha=0.7)
    yMax = yMaxFocus + trans1*(yMaxTotal-yMaxFocus)
    xMax = xMaxFocus + trans1*(xMaxTotal-xMaxFocus)
    xMin = xMinFocus*(1-trans1) + xMinTotal*trans1
    plt.xlim(xMin-0.1, xMax+0.1+1*trans1)
    plt.ylim(yMinFocus*(1-trans1) + yMinTotal*trans1, yMaxFocus*(1-trans1) + yMax*trans1+0.03*trans1)
    plt.text(0.02, 0.89, '%i - %i'%(xMin, x[iMax-1]), transform=plt.gca().transAxes, fontsize=20)
    plt.title('Global Warming Hiatus')
    plt.xlabel('Year')
    plt.ylabel('Relative Global Temperature (°C)')
    plt.gca().yaxis.set_label_coords(-0.13, 0.5)
    if showTrend: leg = plt.legend(frameon=False, loc='lower right')
    fig.subplots_adjust(
        top=0.9,
        bottom=0.13,
        left=0.15,
        right=0.95,
        hspace=0.2,
        wspace=0.2
    )
    fig.canvas.draw()
    s, (width, height) = fig.canvas.print_to_buffer()
    images.append(numpy.array(list(s), numpy.uint8).reshape((height, width, 4)))
    fig.clf()
    plt.close('all')

# Save GIF animation
fileOut = 'Global_warming_hiatus.gif'
imageio.mimsave(fileOut, images, duration=duration)

# Optimize GIF size
from pygifsicle import optimize
optimize(fileOut, colors=20)

Licensering

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Creative Commons CC-Zero Denne fil er udgivet under Creative Commons CC0 1.0 Universal Public Domain Dedication.
Personen, der har tilknyttet et værk til dette dokument, har dikteret værket som offentlig ejendom ved at give afkald alle hans eller hendes rettigheder til værket på verdensplan efter lov om ophavsret og alle relaterede og beslægtede rettigheder, i det omfang lovgivningen tillader det. Du kan kopiere, distribuere og forarbejde værket selv til kommercielle formål; alt sammen uden at spørge om godkendelse.

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Apparent stagnation of global warming

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Filhistorik

Klik på en dato/tid for at se filen som den så ud på det tidspunkt.

Dato/tidMiniaturebilledeDimensionerBrugerKommentar
nuværende17. apr. 2023, 22:52Miniature af versionen fra 17. apr. 2023, 22:52509 × 370 (500 KB)PhysikingerShorter red line
13. apr. 2023, 20:36Miniature af versionen fra 13. apr. 2023, 20:36509 × 370 (511 KB)PhysikingerExtrapolation, Timing
12. apr. 2023, 23:01Miniature af versionen fra 12. apr. 2023, 23:01509 × 370 (510 KB)PhysikingerUpdate 2022, single zoom transition
7. sep. 2021, 14:37Miniature af versionen fra 7. sep. 2021, 14:37509 × 370 (511 KB)PhysikingerSmaller file size
7. sep. 2021, 00:09Miniature af versionen fra 7. sep. 2021, 00:09509 × 370 (617 KB)PhysikingerFixed label, less colors
1. sep. 2021, 21:01Miniature af versionen fra 1. sep. 2021, 21:01509 × 370 (884 KB)PhysikingerUploaded own work with UploadWizard

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